Economic Intervention :: essays research papers

Economic Intervention Every day our government makes economic decisions that affect our country and ourselves. Some of these decisions are good and benefit our lives greatly; however, many of our government's decisions, such as where our tax money should go, are not in our best interests. The Canadian government, although it is tightening up it's measures now, has been very lax with our hard earned tax money. Things like government officials receiving unreasonable benefits, government loans being given out like water, or government subsidizing of various companies and services that don't need it. These are all indications that Canada needs less government intervention. One large example of government over-involvement is in the case of our correctional facilities and prisons. Should a person who has broken the law be given better lodgings and better care than someone who is a law abiding citizen? We see examples such as prisons being outfitted for the care of inmate's children. This is an area in which government money is being improperly spent. Money that is being used in these areas should be being put to better use in areas such as health and welfare. People who are free and law abiding should be receiving this money to better their lives not someone who has had no previous respect for the laws of our country. Most inmates have free access to physical training facilities that would cost us three hundred to four hundred dollars per year. All inmates are guaranteed a meal, three time a day, when a large portion of the free population can barely afford one meal a day. The prison facilities get thousands of tax-payer dollars to upgrade and maintain suitable environments. Yet many Canadian citizens who are unemployed, who cannot get work, are living on the street or in unsuitable shelters. Why should someone in jail get better benefits than someone trying to make it legally in our society? However, it seems that our government has a certain affinity to people who break its set laws. This vast inappropriate spending of taxpayer's dollars should be stopped. In the near future we should see either proper controls being set on the

Mf0010

Master in Business Administration – Semester3 MF0010– Security Analysis and Portfolio Management – 4Credits (Book ID: B1208) Assignment Set- 1 (60 Marks) Q. 1 Frame the investment process for a person of your age group. Ans:- It is rare to find investors investing their entire savings in a single security. Instead, they tend to invest in a group of securities. Such a group of securities is called a portfolio. Most financial experts stress that in order to minimize risk; an investor should hold a well-balanced investment portfolio.The investment process describes how an investor must go about making. Decisions with regard to what securities to invest in while constructing a portfolio, how extensive the investment should be, and when the investment should be made. This is a procedure involving the following five steps: †¢ Set investment policy †¢ Perform security analysis †¢ Construct a portfolio †¢ Revise the portfolio †¢ Evaluate the perf ormance of portfolio 1. Setting Investment Policy : This initial step determines the investor’s objectives and the amount of his investable wealth.Since there is a positive relationship between risk and return, the investment objectives should be stated in terms of both risk and return. This step concludes with the asset allocation decision: identification of the potential categories of financial assets for consideration in the portfolio that the investor is going to construct. Asset allocation involves dividing an investment portfolio among different asset categories, such as stocks, bonds and cash. The asset allocation that works best for an investor at any given point in his life depends largely on his time horizon and his ability to tolerate risk.Time Horizon – The time horizon is the expected number of months, years, or decades that an investor will be investing his money to achieve a particular financial goal. An investor with a longer time horizon may feel more comfortable with a riskier or more volatile investment because he can ride out the slow economic cycles and the inevitable ups and downs of the markets. By contrast, an investor who is saving for his teen-aged daughter’s college education would be less likely to take a large risk because he has a shorter time horizon.Risk Tolerance – Risk tolerance is an investor’s ability and willingness to lose some or all of his original investment in exchange for greater potential returns. An aggressive investor, or one with a high-risk tolerance, is more likely to risk losing money in order to get better results. A conservative investor, or one with a low-risk tolerance, tends to favour investments that will preserve his or her original investment. The conservative investors keep a â€Å"bird in the hand,† while aggressive investors seek â€Å"two in the bush. † While setting the investment policy, the investor also selects the portfolio management style (acti ve vs. assive management). Active Management is the process of managing investment portfolios by attempting to time the market and/or select „undervalued? stocks to buy and „overvalued? stocks to sell, based upon research, investigation and analysis. Passive Management is the process of managing investment portfolios by trying to match the performance of an index (such as a stock market index) or asset class of securities as closely as possible, by holding all or a representative sample of the securities in the index or asset class.This portfolio management style does not use market timing or stock selection strategies. 2. Performing Security Analysis : This step is the security selection decision: Within each asset type, identified in the asset allocation decision, how does an investor select which securities to purchase. Security analysis involves examining a number of individual securities within the broad categories of financial assets identified in the previous step . One purpose of this exercise is to identify those securities that currently appear to be mispriced.Security analysis is done either using Fundamental or Technical analysis (both have been discussed in subsequent units). Fundamental analysis is a method used to evaluate the worth of a security by studying the financial data of the issuer. It scrutinizes the issuer's income and expenses, assets and liabilities, management, and position in its industry. In other words, it focuses on the „basics? of the business. Technical analysis is a method used to evaluate the worth of a security by studying market statistics. Unlike fundamental analysis, technical analysis disregards an issuer's financial statements.Instead, it relies upon market trends to ascertain investor sentiment to predict how a security will perform. 3. Portfolio Construction : This step identifies those specific assets in which to invest, as well as determining the proportion of the investor’s wealth to put i nto each one. Here selectivity, timing and diversification issues are addressed. Selectivity refers to security analysis and focuses on price movements of individual securities. Timing involves forecasting of price movement of stocks relative to price movements of fixed income securities (such as bonds).Diversification aims at constructing a portfolio in such a way that the investor’s risk is minimized. The following table summarizes how the portfolio is constructed for an active and a passive investor. [pic] 4. Portfolio Revision : This step is the repetition of the three previous steps, as objectives might change and previously held portfolio might not be the optimal one. 5. Portfolio performance evaluation : This step involves determining periodically how the portfolio has performed over some time period (returns earned vs. risks incurred). Q. From the website of BSE India, explain how the BSE Sensex is calculated. Ans:- SENSEX is calculated using the â€Å"Free-float Mar ket Capitalization† methodology, wherein, the level of index at any point of time reflects the free-float market value of 30 component stocks relative to a base period. The market capitalization of a company is determined by multiplying the price of its stock by the number of shares issued by the company. This market capitalization is further multiplied by the free-float factor to determine the free-float market capitalization.The base period of SENSEX is 1978-79 and the base value is 100 index points. This is often indicated by the notation 1978-79=100. The calculation of SENSEX involves dividing the free-float market capitalization of 30 companies in the Index by a number called the Index Divisor. The Divisor is the only link to the original base period value of the SENSEX. It keeps the Index comparable over time and is the adjustment point for all Index adjustments arising out of corporate actions, replacement of scrips etc.During market hours, prices of the index scrips, a t which latest trades are executed, are used by the trading system to calculate SENSEX on a continuous basis. Dollex-30 BSE also calculates a dollar-linked version of SENSEX and historical values of this index are available since its inception. (For more details click ‘Dollex series of BSE indices') SENSEX – Scrip Selection Criteria 1. Equities of companies listed on Bombay Stock Exchange Ltd. (excluding companies classified in Z group, listed mutual funds, scrips suspended on the last day of the month prior to review date, scrips objected by theSurveillance department of the Exchange and those that are traded under permitted category) shall be considered eligible 2. Listing History: The scrip should have a listing history of at least three months at BSE. An exception may be granted to one month, if the average free-float market capitalization of a newly listed company ranks in the top 10 of all companies listed at BSE. In the event that a company is listed on account o f a merger / demerger / amalgamation, a minimum listing history is not required. 3.The scrip should have been traded on each and every trading day in the last three months at BSE. Exceptions can be made for extreme reasons like scrip suspension etc. 4. Companies that have reported revenue in the latest four quarters from its core activity are considered eligible. 5. From the list of constituents selected through Steps 1-4, the top 75 companies based on free-float market capitalisation (avg. 3 months) are selected as well as any additional companies that are in the top 75 based on full market capitalization (avg. months). 6. The filtered list of constituents selected through Step 5 (which can be greater than 75 companies) is then ranked on absolute turnover (avg. 3 months). 7. Any company in the filtered, sorted list created in Step 6 that has Cumulative Turnover of >98%, are excluded, so long as the remaining list has more than 30 scrips 8. The filtered list calculated in Step 7 is then sorted by free float market capitalization. Any company having a weight within this filtered constituent list of

World War II The Great War - 1334 Words

World War II The devastation of the Great War (as World War I was known at the time) had greatly destabilized Europe, and in many respects World War II grew out of issues left unresolved by that. In particular, political and economic instability in Germany and lingering resentment over the harsh terms imposed by the Versailles Treaty, fueled the rise to power of Adolf Hitler and his National Socialist (Nazi) Party. The years between the first and second world wars were a time of instability during the worldwide Great Depression that began around 1930. It was also a time when some nations, including Germany, Italy and Japan developed intense nationalist feelings that led to a desire to expand: Germany in Northern and Eastern Europe, Italy in Africa and Greece, and Japan in Asia and the South Pacific. Germany had the added motivation of overturning (and ultimately avenging) the harsh terms forced on it at the conclusion of the First World War. In late August 1939 Hitler and Soviet lead er, Joseph Stalin, signed the German-Soviet Nonaggression Pact, which incited a frenzy of worry in London and Paris. Hitler had long planned an invasion of Poland, a nation to which Great Britain and France had guaranteed military support if it was attacked by Germany. The pact with Stalin meant that Hitler would not face a war on two fronts once he invaded Poland, and would have Soviet assistance in conquering and dividing the nation itself. On September 1, 1939, Hitler invaded Poland fromShow MoreRelatedWorld War II : The Great War1083 Words   |  5 PagesWorld War II The devastation left by the Great War (aka World War 1) had greatly destabilized Europe, and in many aspects World War II grew out of issues left unresolved by the conflicts of WW1. In particular, political and economic instability in Germany left by the harsh punishments and terms imposed by the Versailles Treaty, fueled the rise to power of Adolf Hitler and the Nazi party. In the years between the first and second world wars there was a time of great instability with aRead MoreWorld War II : The Great War884 Words   |  4 PagesWorld War 1 also known as The Great War started for a number of explanations; discrimination and imperialism, militarism nationalism, and alliance. According to the World of information imperialism is the policy which is expanding the country’s power and acquiring new land or countries by force. Militarism is when a country wants to preserve the strongest and most defensive military strength. Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Ottoman Empire where central powers of WW1 but the allied powers where FranceRead MoreWorld War II : The World s Second Great War960 Words   |  4 PagesWorld War II-- also known as The Holocaust / The Genocide -- was the world s second Great War . World War II was much more larger in scale and more longer in duration. World War I had only lasted for four years, while World War II had lasted for six years. I find it quite interesting that contrary to popular belief; the United States did not enter World War II until 2 years after the genesis of the conflict. It was only in 1941, when the Japanese had bombed Pearl Harbor that the United StatesRead MoreWorld War II And The Great Depression1658 Words   |  7 Pages The highly numbered risks of war have rigorous effects on societies around the world. World War II had positive and negative effects during and after the war. After the war, the formation of the United Nations helped negotiate and maintain peace, and during the war more jobs helped get the United States out of its biggest economic crisis, the Great Depression. Although, some economists argue that by creating more jobs during World War II, put America into even more debt than the country was alreadyRead MoreWorld War II : The Great Depression1543 Words   |  7 PagesDanielle Gentry Gary Damon American History II 10:00 MWF 25 April 2016 World War II Two decades after the first World War happen another world war occurred known as World War II. There were many causes that led up to this war. The Treaty of Versailles ended World War I, but Germany had to accept the responsibility of the war. Therefore, Germany economy went downhill and people were starving because of war debt. The Great Depression had a big effect on a lot of countries; therefore, countries startedRead MoreThe Great Depression And World War II Essay1391 Words   |  6 Pagescatastrophes occurred: the Great Depression and World War II. American political leaders established a cause-effect relationship between economic collapse and total war, based on these two events, which defined their policy approach in the post-war period. In the 1930s, American leadership, and most importantly, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, came to view economic decline, political radicalization, and instability as forming a vicious cycle that led to utter chaos and war. Although FDR d id not knowRead MoreThe Great Depression And World War II1507 Words   |  7 PagesFaced with the Great Depression and World War II, Franklin D. Roosevelt, nicknamed â€Å"FDR,† guided America through its greatest domestic crisis, with the exception of the Civil War, and its greatest foreign crisis. His presidency—which spanned twelve years—was unparalleled, not only in length but in scope. FDR took office with the country mired in a horrible and debilitating economic depression that not only sapped its material wealth and spiritual strength, but cast a pall over its future. RooseveltRead MoreThe Great Depression And World War II1280 Words   |  6 PagesSisters of Growth Throughout the beginning of time people have used art to express themselves. With each major, and minor, there is an artist that captures the world as it is around him. There are also artists that create fiction to give the world and escape from reality. The medium of art that will be discussed in this essay will be film. Since the invention of Thomas Jefferson kinecto graph and the Lumiere brothers cinemtograph, films have continued to be the most popular entertainment methodsRead MoreThe Great Depression And World War II955 Words   |  4 PagesIn America, the period between the Great Depression and World War II was rife with uncertainty. The struggles of the Great Depression were over, but their lasting effects shed doubt on America’s future. Persephone, was an attempt by Thomas Hart Benton in 1939 to cement regionalism as the official American art style during this era. However, despite his attempt to promote hope in America’s future, while still acknowledging the despair of the Great Depression, Persephone was regarded as obscene. RegionalismRead MoreWorld War II : The Great People s War1529 Words   |  7 PagesWorld War II (The Great People’s War) was of deep importance to the formation of today’s international relations system, however the following periods after this war between the greatest powers in the world are also of great significance. The analysis of those periods and their impact on world history will be the first approach of this assessment. It is important to clarify that these periods cannot be annualized as isolated events that happened in History, but related events that in a way or another

Product Presentation Example

Effectively introducing a product is the main goal of a successful product presentation example. The art of presenting a product to the audience in the most appealing way possible is a trade of skill and creativity. Producing such presentation is a direct responsibility of the marketing department of any company. Therefore, the basic design of a product presentation is an exceptionally common task assigned to students on a variety of marketing-related courses in higher education. As a result, the provided product presentation example may reveal to be an invaluable tool for one’s personal development. Designing an effective product presentation is neither an ordinary nor a simple task. One has to resemble a sufficient amount of common sense and creativity in order to be able to present a product in the most appealing and exciting way to the public. The presentation should focus on important aspects of the product, however, it should not be oversaturated with statistical data and unnecessary information that may seem tedious. It is important to outline how the product is capable of influencing and changing the lives of its consumers. In most cases, a product presentation consists of a number of slides that are produced in specific graphic design software, such as PowerPoint. One should not be discouraged from the use of such software if he/she has never been acquainted with it before since its is very simple in practice and there are numerous tutorials online. As a brief introduction, the presentation may start off from a short background about the company and the history of its product line. Once the audience has been acquainted with the company, the product presentation should emphasize on the following characteristics of the product and the company that is presenting it: The mission: what is the product bound to achieve; The vision: what does the company wish to achieve; Objectives: how will the product’s mission help achieve the company’s vision; Target market: for whom will be the product provided and why; The product: its nature, functions, and characteristics; One may find a brief example of the key features of such presentation below. The Minitendo Snitch Game Console The Minitendo company has been in the video games business for decades. The company has provided numerous successful video game products and aims to achieve new heights with the presentation of the Minitendo Snitch Game Console. The mission of the product is to provide portable and fun gaming experience. The vision of the company is to provide portable and fun gaming experience to everyone. The objectives are to make the Snitch game console an affordable, portable, and fun gaming device that would appeal to all members of the family, from kids to grandparents. The product itself is a small touchscreen tablet with gamepad functionality. Games can be played either on the go or from the TV screen using an HDMI cable, which results in a unique flexibility of gameplay. The presented Snitch game console is bound to unite both hard-core and casual gamers from all age ranges and spheres of occupation. The author is more than sure that it is a product that will benefit both the company and the consumer by providing a fantastic and unique experience in the video game industry.

Being a male or a female is the most important determinant...

Being a male or a female is the most important determinant of the person’s directions and interests in his/her life. To possess and exhibit the suitable gender characteristics is not an easy mission. The rules of this mission are either inherited or placed by the society. Even though no specific person organizes those rules, the society expects everyone to obey. Gender rules may be strict, and they may put the person under unfavorable pressure. Nevertheless, most people accept them, and maintain their gender characteristics involuntarily. Males and females differ in almost all characteristics. They are different in the way they express their feelings, and in the way they react in response to most situations. Gender differences can be†¦show more content†¦Ã¢â‚¬Å"Hills like White Elephants† depicts the two genders as two people who are strangers to each other; each one lives in his own world, and each one has his own language that the other cannot understand its implication. In this story, the American man’s character is presented as having typical male features. First of all, he is insensitive. The American man does not feel how important that child might be to Jig. He does not think how cruel it is to abort a baby, especially, for the woman who really wants to be a mother. As the American man describes the abortion in the story, â€Å"I know you wouldn’t mind it, Jig. It’s really not anything. It’s just to let the air in† (526). The man insensitively thinks of the abortion as a simple operation. He does not think of the abortion as a big issue. For males, it might be simple, but it is not as simple for females. Also, the previous quote shows another characteristic of the male in this story. He is uncaring and selfish; the American man cares neither about the baby nor about Jig. He knows that by having this baby, a marriage should occur and he will shoulder more responsibilities, so he thinks about what he is going to lose by having this baby. He hates to be committed to this type of life. Even though he tries to persuade Jig that he cares about her, it is clear that he cares about no one but himself. On the other hand, the man is depicted in this storyShow MoreRelatedFactors Influencing the Propensity to Have Extramarital Affairs5218 Words   |  21 Pagesmorality and wellbeing therefore warrant the economic study of their causality (Fair, 1978). Not only this, but the issue is of such interest it has captured the attention of many psychologists, economists and sociologists (Chernozhukov, Hong, p.877). On the premises mentioned above, the purpose of this econometric analysis is therefore to analyze the determinants of extramarital affairs. This study has been conducted using data from a survey by Psychology Today which involves surveying 601 individualsRead MoreInfluence Of Cognitive Development On Gender Identity3129 Words   |  13 Pagesinner sense of being either male or female (Carlson Heth, 2010). In this context, one assigns their gender based on their feelings and not by their biological genitalia. It is different from gender role, which is defined as things people say or do to reveal him or herself as possessing the status of a male or female (Money, 1955). Gender role is a theoretical construct in which certain acts are associated with a particular sex. Gender stereotypes of what it means to be male or female involve a setRead MoreImpact of Motivation on Employee Job Performance11448 Words   |  46 Pagesfactors. Important motivational factors are the work itself, achievement, growth, responsibility, advancement and recognition. These are primary intrinsic motivators rather than extrinsic ones†. In recent times there has been a great challenge in the area of employee motivation. This challenge is due to rapid changes in the operating environment of almost all organizations. Workers would like to work at places where there are good motivational packages. Motivation has engrossed the mind of most managersRead MoreLabeling Theory3304 Words   |  14 Pagesdefining, identifying, segregating, describing, and emphasizing any individual out for special treatment becomes a way of stimulating, suggesting, and evoking the very traits that are complained of. A person becomes the thing they are described as being. Labeling theory or social reaction theory, focuses on the linguistic tendency of majorities to negatively label minorities or those seen as deviant from norms. Labeling theory or social reaction theory is concerned with how the self-identityRead MoreWhat Motivates Employees According to over 40 Years of Motivation Surveys7793 Words   |  32 Pagesof motivation surveys Carolyn Wiley University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, Tennessee, USA Theoretical background The relationship between people and their work has long attracted psychologists and other behavioural scientists. Psychologists’ interests, dating back to the early years of the twentieth century, reflect the development of the industrial psychology and vocational guidance disciplines. Their work dealt with measurement of aptitudes and abilities to improve the job-person fit. The studyRead MoreCareer Strategies for Success6136 Words   |  25 Pageshotel general managers working in deluxe hotels in Greece, data on career strategies were collected using a postal questionnaire. Findings – It is revealed that the managers use a range of different strategies in order to advance their careers. The most commonly used are in relation to career opportunities, skills, mobility, interpersonal relations and handling diverse situations. The least commonly used ones relate to family contacts, job search techniques and pay. Practical implications – The strategiesRead MoreSmartphone Usage Among Students9120 Words   |  37 Pagesthe Internet, 77% search, 68% use an application and 48% watch videos on their smartphone. ii. Action-Oriented Searchers: Smartphones is used to find wide variety of information and to navigate the mobile internet. Search engine websites are the most visited websites with 77% of US smartphone users citing this. iii. Local Information Seekers: Smartphone is convenient because it users can easily access to information through internet and software provided. 95% of US smartphone users have lookedRead MoreMass Incarceration And Its Effects On Society2911 Words   |  12 PagesIntroduction At any given time, there are approximately 2 million American citizens incarcerated and nearly 700,000 inmates returning to their communities each year. (Petitt Western, 2004; Western, 2001). Since most prisoners are eventually released, mass incarceration has in turn produced a steep rise in the number of individuals reentering society and undergoing the process of social and economic reintegration. (Travis, 2005). During the period between 1982 and 2007, the number of AmericansRead MoreEthnic Reproduction and the Amniotic Deep: Joy Kogawas Obasan13316 Words   |  54 Pagesattractiveness (p. 438) The attractiveness stereotype (p. 438) The evolutionary approach: sex differences and sexual selection – what do males and females find attractive? (p. 438) The importance of facial symmetry (p. 439) Is attractiveness really no more than averageness? (p. 440) Body symmetry and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) (p. 440) Is physical attractiveness more important to men? (p. 440) CH028.indd 427 The matching hypothesis (p. 442) An evaluation of attraction research (p. 442) What keepsRead MoreInterpersonal Communication Skills9471 Words   |  38 Pagespaper aims to investigate what interpersonal communication skills that enhance employee commitment to the organisation are most lacking in managers in supervisory positions. Keyword(s): Interpersonal communications; Interpersonal skills; Job satisfaction. Introduction Over the last three decades, studies on how to encourage organisational commitment have been of interest to researchers in the area of organisational communication (Buchanan, 1974; DeCotiis and Summers, 1987; Putti et al., 1990;

Estimating a demand function for Fruit and Vegetables Free Essays

Introduction In this project I will examine the quarterly data set for FTVG20 from Ruritania between 1981 and 2010. I will find a functional form which best fits the data and then test for insignificant variables, structural breaks, seasonality and homogeneity. I will use Slutsky’s equation to calculate the income and substitution effects and then interpret the model. We will write a custom essay sample on Estimating a demand function for Fruit and Vegetables or any similar topic only for you Order Now The social, economic, geographic and economic characteristics of Ruritania are not known. The data set shows that the quantity demanded of fruit and vegetables (QFTVG20) is dependent on the following variables: Table 1 VariableExplanation PMTFHPrice of meat and fish PFTVGPrice of fruit and vegetables PTEAPrice of tea PCOFFPrice of coffee PBEERPrice of beer PWINEPrice of wine PLEISPrice of leisure PTRAVPrice of travel PALLOTHPrice of all other goods INCOMEIncome Literature Review Ruel, Minot and Smith use household expenditure surveys in 10 Sub-Saharan African countries and used a Working-Lessor functional form to find that the main determinants of demand are per capita expenditure, household size, households headed by a female, education and location (urban vs rural). A study by Seale considered the effect of price and income on the demand for different food categories. They found that the food budget share of fruit and vegetable consumption is 10-25%, which is much higher than that of Ruritania. They calculated the expenditure elasticity of fruit and vegetables for low income countries (LICs) to be 0.636, middle-income countries (MICs) 0.514 and high-income countries (HICs) 0.281. The Frisch own-price elasticity of demand was -0.514 in LICs, -0.416 in MICs and -0.227 in HICs. There have been several studies considering non-economic factors that contribute to the demand for fruit and vegetables. A study by Nayga found that demand depends on socio-demographic factors such as location, age, family structure, ethnicity, children and education, whilst Pollard, Kirk and Cade find social desirability, habits, sensory appeal, convenience and advertising to be explanatory variables. Block’s research in Indonesia finds that mothers with nutritional knowledge spend a greater proportion of their food budget on foods rich in nutrients and minerals, such as fruit and vegetables. Functional Form Studenmund says that ‘choice of a functional form is a vital part of the specification of that equation.’ He goes on to mention that the use of Ordinary Least Squares means that the equation should be linear in the parameters rather than variables. In determining a demand function for fruit and vegetables I will consider the following functional forms: Table 2 ModelFunctional form LinearQFTVG20 = b0 + b1PMTFH + b2PFTVG + b3PTEA + b4PCOFF + b5PBEER + b6PWINE + b7PLEIS + b8PTRAV + b9PALLOTH + b10INCOME + et Log-Logln(QFTVG20) = b0 + b1ln(PMTFH) + b2ln(PFTVG) + b3ln(PTEA) + b4ln(PCOFF) + b5ln(PBEER) + b6ln(PWINE) + b7ln(PLEIS) + b8ln(PTRAV) + b9ln(PALLOTH) + b10ln(INCOME) + et Log-Linearln(QFTVG20) = b0 + b1PMTFH + b2PFTVG + b3PTEA + b4PCOFF + b5PBEER + b6PWINE + b7PLEIS + b8PTRAV + b9PALLOTH + b10INCOME + et Linear-LogQFTVG20 = b0 + b1ln(PMTFH) + b2ln(PFTVG) + b3ln(PTEA) + b4ln(PCOFF) + b5ln(PBEER) + b6ln(PWINE) + b7ln(PLEIS) + b8ln(PTRAV) + b9ln(PALLOTH) + b10ln(INCOME) + et In determining which functional form is preferable and which variables are significant, I will use the statistical tests detailed below: Table 3 TestIt tests for†¦Null HypothesisAlternative Hypothesis F TestSignificance of overall regression, individual and joint parametersH0: Test statistic critical valueModel is insignificant HA: Test statistic critical valueModel is significant R2Proportion of variation in sample data explained by the regressionn/an/a Ramsey RESET (RR)Misspecification of the model and omitted variablesH0: Test statistic critical valueModel is adequate and there is no misspecification HA: Test statistic critical valueModel is inadequate and can be improved Jarque-Bera (JB)Normality of the error termH0: Test statistic critical valueThe error term is normally distributed HA: Test statistic critical valueThe error term is not normally distributed White’s (WT)HeteroscedasticityH0: Test statistic critical valueThere is homoscedasticity HA: Test statistic critical valueThere is heteroscedasticity Breusch-Godfrey (BG)Higher order autocorrelationH0: Test statistic critical valueThere is no autocorrelation HA: Test statistic critical valueThere is autocorrelation Durbin-Watson (DW)First order autocorrelationH0: Test statistic upper boundThere is no autocorrelationHA: Test statistic lower boundThere is autocorrelation Additionally, when :Lower bound Test statistic Upper boundThe test for autocorrelation is inconclusive Changes In Demand Roberta Cook’s research has shown that per capita fruit and vegetables consumption (pounds) in the United States has increased by 12.4% from 1976-2006. Interestingly, in the same period there was a 28% reduction in the amount of citrus fruits consumed but growth was boosted by non-citrus fruits and vegetables. Cook suggests that the increase in demand is due to changes in lifestyle such as the large increase in the number of two-income households. This has led to a focus on cooking quickly therefore using more fresh produce. The scatter plot below shows the change in quantity demanded for fruit and vegetables in Ruritania over the time period 1981 to 2010. Quantity demanded was constant between 1980 and 1991 before increasing exponentially. The data does not follow the results of Cook’s research but I am able to predict that the data will fit either a log-log or log-linear model. Choosing the Functional Form From considering the four functional forms I obtained the following test results which are in line with my predictions: Table 4 Statistical TestCritical value at 5% significance levelLinearLog-LogLog-LinearLinear-Log F Test1.9162.86* 157.9* 152* 52.81* R2n/a0.852233 0.935444 0.933081 0.828901 Ramsey RESET (RR)3.9231.982 0.0028123* 1.7429* 33.845 Jarque-Bera (JB)5.9941.046 0.25565* 0.093059* 31.152 White’s (WT)1.642.0512 1.0271* 0.93069* 2.1058 Durbin-Watson (DW)DU= 1.898DL = 1.4621.32 2.05* 2.03* 1.27 Breusch-Godfrey (BG)11.0719.306 7.8052* 2.6625* 23.394 Although the linear model and the linear-log model pass the F-test, only 85% and 83% of the variation in the data is explained by the respective regression model. Both models also fail the Breusch-Godfrey test, Durbin-Watson test, White’s Test, Jarque Bera test and the Ramsey RESET test. From these results I can conclude that the demand function for fruit and vegetables is not in linear or linear-log form. The log-log functional form and the log-linear functional form both explain around 93.5% of the data, which is relatively high. They both pass the T-test, Durbin-Watson test, White’s Test, Jarque Bera test, Breusch-Godfrey test and the Ramsey RESET test at 5%. Although they both pass the same tests, the log-log form passes the Ramsey RESET test at 0.0028123 whilst the log-linear form passes at 1.7429. Since the log-log model passes this more satisfactorily, the model will have a lower chance of misspecification. Additionally, a log-log model allows easier interpretation as elasticity is constant and equal to b at every point. I will therefore choose the log-log functional form as the demand function for fruit and vegetables. For analysis, if an independent variable changes by 1% whilst other independent variables are held constant, then the dependant variable will change by the b value of the independent variable. Testing individual parameters Having identified the preferred functional form, I will now test the significance of individual parameters at a 5% significance level. Calculated using a 2-tailed T-test H0: b0 = 0 H1: b0 ?0 Test statistic (t) = b0 – b0 T(N-2) where N = 120 so T(118) Se(b0) If – tc ? t ? tc fail to reject the null hypothesis and b0 is not significant Ift ? tc or t ? -tc reject the null hypothesis and b0 is significant Table 5 Parameter Coefficient Standard Error Test Statistic Intercept 3.35508 2.655 1.264 ln(PMTFH) -0.294682 0.1787 -1.649 ln(PFTVG) -0.576745 0.2888 -1.997* ln(PTEA) -0.524011 0.2585 -2.027* ln(PCOFF) 0.0219395 0.2631 0.083 ln(PBEER) 0.115732 0.2336 0.495 ln(PWINE) -0.191003 0.3137 -0.609 ln(PLEIS) 0.169363 0.1732 0.978 ln(PTRAV) 0.197812 0.1532 1.291 ln(PALLOTH) 2.31373 0.5330 4.341* ln(INCOME) -0.669523 0.2149 -3.116* The critical values for the t – test are +/- 1.98. From the t-test I have found that only four of the parameters are significant at a 5% significance level. They are: price of fruit and vegetables, price of tea, price of all other goods and the level of income. Since the price of meat and fish, intercept and price of travel are close to the critical value, I will keep these in the model. I will now run a second regression excluding the variables: price of coffee, price of beer, price of wine and price of leisure, and will use more t-tests to determine which of the parameters are significant. The results are shown in the table below. Table 6 Parameter Coefficient Standard Error Test Statistic Intercept 2.53817 1.678 1.513 ln(PMTFH) -0.145648 0.1367 -1.065 ln(PFTVG) -0.613409 0.2411 -2.544* ln(PTEA) -0.518472 0.1684 -3.079* ln(PTRAV) 0.125349 0.1283 0.977 ln(PALLOTH) 2.66028 0.2728 9.752* ln(INCOME) -0.662872 0.1934 -3.427* Whilst the intercept is still insignificant, I will continue to include it in the model as removing it can create bias in the regression.The price of meat and fish and the price of travel are still insignificant in this regression so I will remove them from the model. The restricted regression model has the functional form: ln(QFTVG20) = b0 + b2ln(PFTVG) + b3ln(PTEA) + b9ln(PALLOTH) + b10ln(INCOME) + et To ensure the removal of the six parameters improves the model, I will run an F-test on the restricted model: F = (SSRR-SSUR)/r (SSUR)/n-k Where r = number of restrictions in the model, n = number of observations, k = number of parameters in the unrestricted model (including the intercept) The null hypothesis is: H0: b1 = b4 = b5 = b6 = b7 = b8 = 0 HA: Null hypothesis is untrue At 5% significance level, critical value F(6,109) = 2.18 F = (16.7224302 – 16.0433624)/6 (16.0433624)/120-11 F = 0.7689409526 2.18 Since the test statistic is less that the critical value, I fail to reject the null hypothesis so the variables are collectively insignificant and can now be removed. Further Tests I will consider whether there are structural breaks and seasonal changes. Structural Breaks I have chosen to graph QFTVG20 over time rather than lnQFTVG20 as there is a marked increase in fruit and vegetables consumption after 1998 which does not appear on the graph for lnFTVG. This increase in consumption may be due to a structural change. I will therefore split the regression model into two, and carry out a Chow Test, where: H0 = no structural change HA = structural change Chow Test n1 = number of observations in the first regression n2 = number of observations in the second regression k = number of parameters including the constant SSRR = RSS from original model SSUR = RSS from regression 1 + RSS from regression 2 Table 7 Time PeriodNumber of observationsResidual sum of squares 1981 – 19987210.7905333 1999 – 2010485.82816287 1981 – 201012016.7224302 F = (16.7224302 – 10.7905333 – 5.82816287)/5= 0.1373241701 (10.7905333 + 5.82816287)/(72 + 48 – 2?5) At a 5% significance level, the critical value is F(5,110) = 2.29 Since 0.137 2.29 I fail to reject the null hypothesis and can conclude that there is no structural change when tested at the 5% significance level. Seasonal Dummy Variables Since fruit and vegetables grow on a seasonal basis, it is prudent to include seasonal dummy variables to see whether the data follows seasonality. To do this, I will create four dummy variables, however, I will only include three dummy variables so as to avoid falling into the dummy variable trap. This avoids obtaining perfect multicollinearity. The three dummies refer to the difference between themselves and the omitted (reference) dummy variable. With the inclusion of three dummy variables, the model becomes: ln(QFTVG20) = b0 + b2ln(PFTVG) + b3ln(PTEA) + b9ln(PALLOTH) + b10ln(INCOME) + baD1 + bbD2 + bcD3 + et Table 8 QuarterParameterCoefficientEstimated standard errorTest statisticSignificant at 5% (critical value +/- 1.98 1D1-0.02170250.09880-0.220No 2D20.09085330.098770.920No 3D30.1118250.098751.13No This shows that the dummy variables are insignificant at 5% significance level. To remove the dummy variables, I run an F-test to check for the combined significance. H0: ba = bb = bc = 0 HA: H0 is not true F = (SSRR-SSUR)/r ~ F(r, n-k) (SSUR)/n-k F = (16.7224302 – 16.3332741)/3= 0.8890750414 16.3332741/(120 – 8) At 5% significance level, the critical value for F(3,112) is 2.68. Since 0.889 2.68 I fail to reject the null hypothesis. From this, it can be seen that at the 5% significance level, there is no evidence of seasonality. I can now remove the seasonal dummy variables. Homogeneity A demand function is homogenous if when both prices and income are doubled, the optimal quantities demanded do not change. H0: b2 + b3 + b9 + b10 = 0 HA: b2 + b3 + b9 + b10 ? 0 If H0 is true, the equation can be rearranged as: b10 = – b2 – b3 – b9 The regression model thus becomes: ln(QFTVG20) = b0 + b2ln(PFTVG) + b3ln(PTEA) + b9ln(PALLOTH) + (- b2 – b3 – b9)ln(INCOME) From logarithmic rules, the equation can be written as: Ln(QFTVG20)= b0 + b2ln(PFTVG/INCOME) + b3ln(PTEA/INCOME) + b9ln(PALLOTH/INCOME) F = (SSRR-SSUR)/r (SSUR)/n-k F = (17.3810772 – 16.7224302)/1 = 4.529509413 16.7224302/(120-5) The critical value for F(1,115) is 3.92. Since 4.5295 3.92 I reject the null hypothesis and conclude that demand is not homogenous, it exhibits heterogeneity. Laitinen has undertaken a study which concludes that the test of homogeneity is ‘seriously biased’ towards rejecting the null hypothesis. This leads me to believe that my result is acceptable and could be due to this, or the money illusion, where consumers mistake changes in nominal values to be changes in real values. Slutsky The Slutsky equation shows how a price change can lead to an income effect and a substitution effect. To calculate the price elasticity of demand I multiply through by P/Q and multiply the last term by I/I giving: This means: Price elasticity of demand = substitution effect – (income elasticity x fraction of income spent) From table 10 it can be seen that the income elasticity of demand is -0.470995 and price elasticity of demand of fruit and vegetables is -0.626791. The fraction of income spent on fruit and vegetables is 3%. Income effect = -0.470995 x 0.03 = -0.01412985 Substitution effect = -0.626791 – -0.01412985 = -0.61266115 Since income elasticity of demand is negative, this means that fruit and vegetables are inferior goods. The substitution effect must always be negative. Interpretation Of The Preferred Model Having identified that there are no structural breaks in the model and that there is no evidence of seasonality, I can run a third regression with all the insignificant variables removed. The demand function is determined by: ln(QFTVG20) = b0 + b2ln(PFTVG) + b3ln(PTEA) + b9ln(PALLOTH) + b10ln(INCOME) + et The restricted regression model gives the following results to the aforementioned diagnostic tests: Table 9 Statistical TestCritical value at 5% significance levelLog Log (restricted)Log Log (unrestricted) F Test1.91398.5*157.9* R2n/a0.9327110.935444 Ramsey RESET (RR)3.920.26863*0.0028123* Jarque-Bera (JB)5.990.52542*0.25565* White’s (WT)1.640.36082*1.0271* Durbin-Watson (DW)upper 1.898lower 1.4622.01*2.05* Breusch-Godfrey (BG)11.074.8690*7.8052* * Significant at 5% significance level The restricted log-log model passes every test carried out and passes the F test and White’s Test more satisfactorily than the unrestricted log-log model. I will now run further t-tests and consider whether the remaining variables are still significant. The results are shown in the table below. Table 10 Parameter Coefficient Standard Error Test Statistic Constant 0.814700 1.125 0.724 ln(PFTVG) -0.626791 0.2407 -2.604* ln(PTEA) -0.579563 0.1616 -3.586* ln(PALLOTH) 2.80783 0.2372 11.837* ln(INCOME) -0.470995 0.1353 -3.481* The table shows that all the remaining parameters (except the constant) are significant at a 5% significance level. Regression equation for the preferred model ln(QFTVG20) = 0.814700 – 0.626791ln(PFTVG) – 0.579563ln(PTEA) + 2.80783ln(PALLOTH) – 0.470995ln(INCOME) The equation suggests that fruit and vegetables are inferior goods as the coefficient for income is negative. This means that as income increases, the demand for fruit and vegetables decrease. Interpretation of Elasticities Table 11 ParameterCoefficientInterpretation Constant0.814700Autonomous LPFTVG-0.626791Own price inelastic LPTEA-0.579563Complement LPALLOTH2.80783Substitute LINCOME-0.470995FTVG20 is income inelastic and is an inferior good. Constant – represents the value that is predicted for the dependant variable when all the independent variables are equal to zero. LPFTVG – A 1% increase in price will lead to a 0.626791% fall in quantity demand of fruit and vegetables. The average own-price elasticity for fresh fruit from 10 studies combined by Durham and Eales is -0.6 which is very close to the elasticity I have found. LPTEA – A 1% increase in price of tea will lead to a fall in demand of FTVG20 of 0.579563%. This could be due to fruit and tea being consumed together, for example, as part of breakfast. LPALLOTH – a 1 % increase in the price of all other goods will cause a 2.80783% increase in demand for fruit and vegetables LINCOME – A 1% increase in income means the demand for fruit and vegetables will fall by 0.470995%. From this I can conclude that fruit and vegetables are inferior goods. Purcell and Raunikar found that at lower incomes, fruit and vegetables are normal goods but at higher incomes they are inferior goods. They also found that green vegetables are inferior goods for all levels of income from 1958-62. Their results correspond to a recent study (2007) by Ruel, Minot and Smith, who found that in 10 (relatively poor) African countries the average income-elasticity of demand for fruit and vegetables was 0.766, i.e. fruit and vegetables are normal goods for low-income countries. Conclusion In this project I have estimated a demand function for fruit and vegetables (20) in Ruritania. Through using diagnostic tests and regression analysis I have found it to be a log-log model. I was able to remove insignificant variables leaving independent variables of price of fruit and vegetables, tea, all other goods and income. I then tested the data for seasonality and structural breaks and found no evidence of seasonality or structural breaks between 1981 and 2010. I found the data to be heterogeneous and justified this with reference to Laitinen’s research. Using Slutsky’s equation, I found that fruit and vegetables are inferior goods. To improve the model I could separate the demand for fruit and vegetables to see whether they both remain inferior goods. It would also be interesting to consider socioeconomic factors, such as those studied by Nayga. Additionally, since a large proportion of demand for fruit is made up of the demand for juice, it would useful to consider the demand of whole fruit and vegetables rather than that pressed into juice. These factors combined may improve the model so that a proportion of the remaining 6.6% of the data fits my regression model. References Ashworth, J. Durham Economics Lecture Notes Bath Lecture Notes: www.people.bath.ac.uk/bm232/EC50161/Dummy%20Variables.ppt Block, S., ‘Maternal Nutritional Knowledge and the Demand for Micronutrient Rich Foods: Evidence From Indonesia’ Cook, R. ‘U.S. Per Capita Fruit and Vegetables Consumption’ Cook, R. ‘Some Key Changes In U.S. Consumption Patterns’ Durham, C. Eales, J. ‘Demand Elasticities For Fresh Fruit and the Retail Level’ Greenwood, S. ‘Consumer Trends for the New Millennium Impact Fresh-cut Produce’ Han, T., Wahl, T. ‘China’s Rural Demand For Fruit and Vegetables’ Griffiths, W., Judge, G. ‘Undergraduate Economics’ Laitinen, K. ‘Why is demand homogeneity so often rejected?’ Nau, F. ‘Additional Notes On Regression Analysis’ Duke Fuqua Business School Nayga. ‘Determinants of US Household Expenditures on Fruit and Vegetables. A Note and Update.’ Nicholson, W. ‘Microeconomic Theory: Basic Principles and Extensions’ Purcell, J.C., Raunikar, R. ‘Quantity-Income Elasticities For Foods By Level of Income’ Journal of Farm Economics, December 1967 Ruel, M.T., Minot, N., Smith, L. ‘Patterns and Determinants of Fruit and Vegetable Consumption In Sub-Saharan Africa: A Multicountry Comparison’ International Food Policy Research Institute, 2005 Seale, J., Regmi, A., Bernstein, J. ‘International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns’ Studenmund, A. ‘Using Econometrics’ Wang, X. Durham Economics Lecture Notes How to cite Estimating a demand function for Fruit and Vegetables, Essay examples

The Evolution of Al-Qaeda Leading Up to ISIS free essay sample

One of the successful reforms was the formation of the ISIS group, the more heinous version of the core al-Qaeda whose leaders have turned against ISIS. Although the original al-Qaeda network has lost notoriety, it is still known that its offshoot cell-groups and lone wolves throughout the world continue to commit frequent acts of violence to the non-Muslim countries, especially the West and Israel, unless they are stopped by an outside force. Hence, it is of great importance to examine what lies ahead for the two individual groups in light Of the al-Qaeda versions to date. The September 1 1, 2001 attacks were a turning point in the perception of terrorist groups and their merciless attacks. Many counter-terrorism apartments and policies were created during the Global War on Terrorism (Hurwitz, S 2014; Howard, R. , Sawyer, R. 2006435). As a matter of fact, the world had known smaller-scale and frequent terrorist activity in recent history, but this understanding did not come to the forefront until after 9/1 1 when al-Qaeda made it apparent that the western superpower no longer needed to be considered invincible, but an entity that is vulnerable from across the oceans (Post 2009; Howard, R 2006). Numerous extremists all around the world have since created their own organizations in the name of rearranging al-Qaeda. Amid these groups, an unprecedented one emerged with brutal tactics, plenty of resources, and its own territories, and became the worlds richest terrorist group in todays world that is ISIS (Seoul, J 2014). In spite of the enduring nature of the counter terrorism policies put into action since the events of 9/1 1 , contemporary terrorism is continuing to flourish.It seems impossible that one nation, the United States itself, spent more than 10 billion dollars to advance national and domestic security, while it appears that terrorism continues unabated. Consider the cent terrorist cases of the Boston Marathon bombings in the United States, Charlie Hoped shootings in France, the tourists killed at the Board Museum in Tunisian, and the suicide bombing at the Asana mosque in Yemeni as evidence of terrorisms seemingly unhindered march across the globe.Most of these attacks and others like them are the work of terrorists affiliated with al-Qaeda or ISIS. Therefore, it seems more crucial than ever to increase counter-terrorist activities and continue research in the eradication of ferocious terrorists such as al-Qaeda-based freelancers and groups such as ISIS in this world. More importantly, learning the history, ideology, and strategies of al-Qaeda and its affiliates can be a springboard to more accurate predictions of future terrorist movements.What is al Qaeda? The origin of al Qaeda meaning base9 began with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan 0 in 1989. Opposed to the communist ideology to absorb the Afghanistan government, Arab volunteers, also known as meaningful 1, joined what is referred to the holy war or jihad against non-Muslim forces. Among those Arab volunteers were men who would become key ringleaders in al-Qaeda, men such as Osama bin Laden, Amman al-Charities, ND Abdullah Zamia.These leaders spearheaded the movement to recruit shadiest from across the Muslim world with a call for victorious jihad not only in Afghanistan, but also around the world. Key to this victory was the destruction of the American ideology that ran intolerably counter to that of Islam (Hellenic, C 2011). There were indeed, following Scams sudden death in 1 989, clear-cut causes as to why Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda targeted the United States as a major enemy. In the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990, Saudi Arabia refused to deploy al-Qaeda-offered jihads forces againstSad Husseins aggression. Rather, the Saudi ruler, King Fad, was partially in favo r of U. S. Military and financial supports, creating a deep division between the Saudi and bin Laden. Another crucial event that provoked Osama bin Laden was King Fads invitation to the U. S. Military forces to travel through the Arabian Peninsula, popularly known as Mecca 15 and is in close proximity to their holy lands (Post 2009). This invitation was a harbinger of new-era international terrorism between the West and the al-Qaeda forces.After transferring headquarters from Sudan into Afghanistan due to the instruction of a tight-knit relationship with the Taliban regime, which furnished a training camp and military garrison, this homegrown organization or network gradually turned their focus to the transnational goals of the destruction of western values and the existent Jewish state of Israel (Hellenic, C 2011 Attacks attributed to al-Qaeda and associated groups began with the 1993 World Trade Center bombing and continued to the bombing of the Twin Towers in New York City on September 1 1, 2001 and further terrorist events 7 against non-combatants on a transnational scope. Most of these attacks were brought on because of religious goals. Having identical goals, but envisioning different avenues toward recreating the Islamic empire that once existed caused friction within al Qaeda rank and file.The one group began to split into individual segments. AY-Qaeda Ideology and philosophy The ideology of al-Qaeda can be found in a specific document al-Qaeda operational man where eight chapters of the total contain not only a sophisticated list of instructions for operation methods but also mistakes and lessons cited from other adversaries such as an Israeli Moisakos counter- espionage failure and the Russian KGB elite Alpha Group. Many of the instructions cite certain sugar (verses) of the Quasars as a contrivance to justify their acts of violence. This training manual has afforded one of the best insights into the al-Qaeda leadership.The mindsets of Osama bin Laden and his successor Amman al-Charier were heavily inspired by Stayed Quotes, who was a vanguard of an Islamic fundamentalist revival and laid the foundation for al-Qaeda ideology. Quests definition of the enemy included untrue Muslims as well as Western-Israelis who had wickedly plotted, especially since he Israel independence in 1948, to besmirch the pristine Islamic states. Based on a notion of Socialist shadiest, al Qaeda ideology permitted the slaying of civilians dedicated to other religions as well as unorthodox Muslims such as Suffixs and Shiites, as religiously justified to achieve jihad (Wright 2006:32-59).According to their ideology, al Qaeda has two objectives: one is the collapse of western influence and Israel, and second is the establishment of the Islamic state where one righteous Caliph will rule an orthodox Muslim community according to Sharis law, and eliminate non- Muslim collectives (infidels), who have blemished the pure Islam (Wright 20061175). The Rolling strategies According to an interview with USAF al Adele, one of al Qaeda high-ranking members, the group had a seven-juncture plan from 2000 to 2020 for the establishment of an Islamic Caliphate. Strategic sub-objectives have evolved on a chronological basis as below: (Parrish 2014). The first phase (2000 to 2003) was an awakening juncture that was to drag attention from the west forces and awaken Muslims all over the world to their ultimate goal, a reinstatement of Islamic states.It was assessed as successful since al Qaeda instigated the World Trade Center terror in New York and on the Pentagon in Washington proving the U. S. Was no longer untouchable. However, Americans full scale military raids in Iraq and Afghanistan resulted in the loss of key leaders and a weakened stronghold in Afghanistan. The second phase (2004 to 2006) was, according to the interviewer Food Hussein, a transition from an organization to a movement (Jihads). In this transition, they laid the groundwork for a base while recruiting young men to set up an army. The Long War Journal, in 2005, named this second phase a failure. But, in fact, ore extremists the Islamic State of Iraq and the Eleven (SOILS) were active in Iraq and Syria since its inception in 2004. It, thus, can be called successful in this regard. The third phase (2007 to 201 0) was a period in which al Qaeda masterminds planned attacks on Israel to marshal like-minded terrorist groups in Iraq and Syria. There was a surge of al Qaeda affiliates such as al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (ASAP) in Yemen, AY Shabby in Somalia, al Qaeda in the Islamic Manager (SWIM) in Algeria, the Libya Islamic Fighting Group (LIFE), the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) in Iraq, all of which ad carried out terrorist courses of action against civilians, albeit with different visions from core-al Qaeda, which were more or less considered successful.The fourth phase (201 0 to 2013) was the collapse of the hated Arabic government as well as undermining western economy, the backbone of international trade and the world economy, exemplified by a boat packed with explosives in October 2002. 28 This period was a turning point for the group when their administrative structure became more cellular. Bin Laden had previously employed a top-down administrative model. AY Qaeda affiliates, and individuals basing their actions on al-Qaeda vision, managed to operate all over the North Africa, Syria, Iraq, Pakistan, and even South Asia. In the wake of Arab Spring, the Syrian Sad regime was seen as a template by a majority of terrorist groups at the time. The fifth phase spans from 201 3 to 2016 during which time an Islamic state or caliphate will be proclaimed while western influence and Israel forces are weakened.Societal order, legitimacy, and politics would be under the al Qaeda oversight. In the present day, despite differences from the original al Qaeda mission, the event can be seen as ongoing through cellular activity or efforts. The creation of ISIS in 2013 as a terrorist state corroborated the idea that this is not an unrealistic narrative. The sixth phase is the period from 2016 onward, which is planned as a direct confrontation between Islamic believers and non- believers. The seventh phase, as a final step, is depicted as definitive victory and should be attained by 2020. The sixth and seventh phase of what lies ahead is indistinct.The Organization in Transitions AY Qaeda The first generation of al-Qaeda, from its birth to the September 1 1, 2001 attack on The United States, operated on a command structure mainly under the guidance of Osama bin Laden, who took control of the group following Abdullah Scams death. For this emerging generation of terrorists, al-Qaeda played an unprecedented role in encouraging young Muslims to resist their enemies: the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and the Western countries. When it came to recruitment, al-Qaeda did not have a formal hiring system, but relied on familial ties and relationships, mostly started from a brotherhood Status, a similar concept of Muslim Brotherhood. According o the Commission on Terrorist Attacks, there were as many as 20,000 potential terrorists trained at bin Laden-led camps throughout Afghanistan from May 1996 to September 1 1, 2001.Many skillful and feared terrorist attackers involv ed in high-profile strategic onslaughts such as the World Trade Center bombing in 199329, the catastrophic explosion in Saudi Arabia in 1 99630, the East African bombings in 199831 and three years later the attacks of 9/1 1 in New York and Washington, D. C. , came from these training camps, which were considered the main pathway for the next terrorist generations (Post 2009:202-205). The al-Qaeda top-down structure employed four interconnected, but distinct factors: a pyramidal structure to facilitate strategies and prompt decision-makings; a transnational terrorist network to cooperate with other terrorist syndicates to reach every corner of the world; a base force of guerrilla warfare in Afghanistan; and a loose coalition of transnational and domestic groups to minimize differences and emphasize similarities, such as the vision of a common enemy the West (Gunboat, R 2002).Terrorists targets were declared through The Two Fatwas in 1996 and 1998 respectively. The first fatwa, or holy decree, declared war against the Americans Occupying the Land of the Two Holy Places according to Bin Laden. The second fatwa further expanded to Jihad against Jews and Crusaders. It has been a religious obligation for global shadiest to do so thereafter (Watts, C 2013). AY Qaeda 2. 0 Following the declaration of War on Terror in the post-9/1 1 world, al-Qaeda morphed from what has been called al-Qaeda Version 1. 0 into al-Qaeda Version 2. 0 where the network lost the hierarchical control, but its ideology still influenced the global Salami jihad movement.Many regional brigades with efferent titles sprung up far and wide during this juncture and marked post- September 11 attacks in Bali, Yemen, Moscow, Spains, North Africa, etc. As a response to Osama bin Aldens recording: The Islamic nation, thanks to God, has started to attack you at the hands of its beloved sons, who pledged to God to continue jihad, as long as they are able, through words and weapons, to establish right and expose falsehood (Post 2009:211-222). In the face of the losses of the Afghanistan bases and senior leaders, the withered core al-Qaeda force was still not destroyed, but was being operated under he current leader, Sharis, stewardship. The Charier-operated al-Qaeda embraced its rivals to shore up its strengths. One of its rivals was that of ABA Muses al-Serialize, a founder of al-Qaeda in Iraq (IQ, and later renamed ISIS after his death in 2006). In stark contrast to moderate bin Laden and Sharis leaderships, Gizzard utilized more aggressive and indiscriminate means to achieve the political ends, one of which was to purge Shiites. His main purpose was to destroy the whole population of the Shih community in Iraq, rather than to focus on destroying American and Israeli interests (Celli, A 2014). This stage raised concerns about homegrown terrorists who had no central structure. Many Muslim youths not in the Middle East who sympathized with the global jihads movement operated independently. AY Qaeda 3. Less than four years ago, the idea of al-Quaysides was on its last leg due to Osama bin Aldens a heroic and inspirational figure to shadiest passing in 201 1. Since the Arab Awakening started in 2010, corrupt, dictatorial, and secular regimes from Tunisia to Syria have collapsed en masses or near collapsed in case of Basher al-Sad regime, one after another, due to peaceful, pro-democratic protests. However, these collapses failed to touch extremists who preferred to practice violence and follow original Islamic laws (Ridded, B 2014). Thus, the third generation rose in what was known as the Basher al-Sad regime in which Jubbah al-Unusual -? a self-declared al-Qaeda affiliate was created.The Unbar province became the epicenter of ISIS whose leader, ABA Baker al-Baghdad, called upon global shadiest to assemble and reestablish the Islamic States of Caliphate. The reason they were created in both countries was primarily due to the gradual implementation of the Syrian infighting in early 2012, which led shadiest to engage in the sighting on religious grounds. Also, its proximity to US-occupied Iraq made Syria a terrorist attraction venue. Th e Syrian government, which was intent on keeping US forces busy fighting al-Qaeda, brought calamity upon itself by offering a safe haven for world shadiest. A series of peaceful protests triggered by the Arab Spring ultimately wrought some tragic repercussions especially in Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq (Mustang 2014). What is ISIS?The Islamic State has gone through scores of its names from al-Qaeda in Iraq (IQ), Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), Islamic State in Iraq and the Eleven (SOILS), and the latest moniker Islamic State (IS). The group today is considered a monstrous organization due to their tactics, such as beheading, crucifixion, and public execution, practiced on anyone, regardless of gender or age. ISIS is so brutal even the current al-Qaeda organization has distanced itself from the group (Lee, E, Army, M 2015). The expressed aim of ISIS is to erect a Socialist government over the Eleven areas of Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Israel, Cyprus and Southern Turkey.Little is known about the groups leader, ABA Baker al-Baghdad and the origin of his enmity against literally everyone else. Several eyewitnesses, as well as his n eighbors, have given testimony that he is a very quiet, introverted, and pious person. His origins of ruthlessness, it is guessed, lie in the IS. S. Invasion in 2003 to usurp the Sad Hussein regime. He has spent several years in confinement in Camp Abaca, known as a terrorist university through which have passed many Islamic State leaders(Giovanni, J 2014). When al-Baghdad his real name ABA Du -? was discharged from the camp in 2009, he formed the Islamic State in Iraq, and was nominated as the leader in May 2010.From the beginning, the Islamic State in Iraq had voluminous ambitions and a different agenda from the core al-Qaeda. They abandoned al-Qaeda flag and chose a new one, which is the one they currently use (Newman, A 2014). The Of AY-Qaeda and ISIS There are no natural laws or scientific principles that can be used to predict how the next wave of al-Qaeda affiliates will move. It is hard to foretell the future of terrorist movements despite efforts and analysis conducted by scores of scholars, terrorism experts, and government agencies. The world could experience a complete liberation from terrorism if ways were covered to forestall what might unfold next.Unfortunately, terrorism is still under way every/here even though many counter-terrorism organizations are working to prevent or uproot al-Qaeda franchises and individual cells (Simon, J, 2013, chapter 8, A Look Toward The Future). Since the core al Qaeda has collapsed, a number of cellular groups emerged around the globe. Although major counter-terrorism policies have been reinforced across many countries, radicalized individuals took advantage of off-guard moments as evidenced in the Charlie Hoped shooting in Paris, the events of May 2014 n Brussel s, and those of May 2013 in London committed lone wolves affiliated with al-Qaeda or Islamic extremists.There is reason to believe that nations making visible efforts to eliminate terrorism can have an impact in destroying al-Qaeda creating safe-havens, cutting revenue streams, and hampering would-be terrorists from traveling abroad to participate international terrorist groups. Nonetheless, many countries experienced a low-barrier for self-motivated shadiest who have locally or domestically carried out terrorist attacks such as 2013 Boston Marathon Bombing. In this ensue, although many people thought the war was over when bin Laden was shot and officially declared dead in 2011, many counter-terrorism experts commented we are still playing on bin Laden-built game that no longer needed him (The Economists blob 201 1).A new version of violent jihad has emerged on the very corner of the world, indicating that the war against al- Qaeda is a battle of ideas that cannot be won militarily (Hellenic 201 1:162). John Horror, the Center for Terrorism and Security Studies, also commented that the rise of lone wolf terrorism is a sign Of organizational weakness, and et it does not mean that the Western world, considered as a main enemy to al-Qaeda, is free from such larger-scale attacks by al Qaeda affiliates (Named 2015). Unlike the al-Qaeda network, the more strategi cally radical ISIS group, as the latest version of al-Qaeda, has focused more on peripheral regions to build bases all over the Middle East than on Western nations, at least not at this stage.To achieve their objective the establishment of the Caliphate ISIS will likely pay heed to allying other terrorist organizations within the Middle East areas, rather than to attacking a distance target. Clearly, this does not mean that ISIS already has a solid basis on which to achieve their wishes. In some cases, Baghdad succeeded in partnering extreme terrorist organizations such as the Nanas Batty al-Misaims in Sinai, AY-Qaeda branch in Morocco, Book Harm in Uganda, and some Taliban groups in Pakistan, the leaders Of which have sworn allegiance to Baghdad. However, a multiplicity of moderate terrorist groups rejected siding with ISIS on account of different perspectives.Assam al-Barbaric, a modern Salami movement leader and the leader of the Jihad in Jordan, sharply railed against SISS antics killing Shiites, other minorities, and even Sunnis followers who do not show loyalty to SISS indoctrination. This is just one example of the strained relationships and rivalries between the various groups. The incumbent al-Qaeda leader, al- Charier, also condemned their tactics and methodology (Meghan)45, saying that is not jihad, but nothing less than aggression and barbaric crime. In this sense, such dynamics amongst even terrorist groups in the Middle East would definitely hamper SIS S pathway (Barrel, Z. 2014; Celli, A. 2014).Conclusion We have seen the evolution of the al-Qaeda network from its rise to its aspersion, which continues through many versions of terrorist groups and sleeper cells. In the face of the weakened al-Qaeda power, its influence is still prevalent. It remains a force with which to be reckoned in this world. The most heinous al-Qaeda-based group, ISIS, which has performed with a similar, yet skewed, vision, will surely threaten our world in many ways. Despite their haphazard terrorism, their threat to the western and third world countries at this stage is somewhat lessened because al-Baghdad now centers On exterminating fellow Muslims through beheading, crucifixions, ND public executions, activities which have become their trademarks.